Understanding Fantasy Hockey Standard's Playoff Projections
Astute readers of our Playoff Draft Guide may notice that the projected point totals in our cheat sheets seem to be a little out of whack compared to the number of projected games played for each player.
This is because we do our projections for the playoffs a little differently than what you might be used to. Our projected totals are not necessarily meant to give an exact snapshot of what will happen in the playoffs. The final total is a balanced number that takes into account multiple variables and different factors, and it’s representative of a range of possible outcomes. In essence, if this year’s playoffs could be played out thousands of times, the projected point total is something of an average of what we might expect. It also goes beyond that to factor in many other additional details as we add the human touch.
Exact predictions are fun to do, but they aren’t particularly accurate or useful for fantasy purposes. If you deal in absolutes and set rankings based strictly on predicted games played, your numbers will skew too high or low on certain teams. The “exact prediction” style places far too much emphasis on the projected winners and losers, and only accounts for one specific scenario. It fails to account for the probability that teams projected to make the deep rounds very well may not get there, or that other teams predicted to lose early may in fact have a close to equal chance of progressing themselves.
For example, we project San Jose to go to the conference finals, but are they realistically much of a favorite to get there over a team like Detroit? We love San Jose’s potential right now, but it would be foolish to think they’re a lock to make it. To factor in things like San Jose’s realistic downside, or Detroit’s upside, we skew the point totals slightly from the games played to give a more realistic fantasy ranking. The projected games played is based on our predictions for the playoff bracket (and you‘ll note this factors heavily into the rankings and point totals as is), but the actual number of points listed is something of a middle ground.
To illustrate further, take a look at a team like Tampa Bay, who we predict to be out in the first round. In reality, they probably have at least a 45% chance to win their series, and a definite chance to go even further. Adding a few points to their player’s totals allows us to appropriately factor in their true upside and potential to win a series.
Fantasy Hockey Standard doesn’t follow the herd, and we are constantly raising the bar and introducing new ways of looking at fantasy hockey. Our style of projection is probably different than what you might be used to, but in the end this system makes for a much more useful evaluation. We’re confident that our playoff rankings will give you a major advantage over anyone who doesn’t have them, and the projections will be far more useful to you if you understand exactly how we do things.
Also note, we’ve updated the playoff guide now that the playoff picture is completely set, and we've tweak our rankings based on the latest trends and injury information. Make sure to download the final version for your draft.
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Good luck in your playoff pools and thanks for your support!